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Evolutionary strategic beliefs and financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yannick Viossat

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We provide a discipline for belief formation through a model of subjective beliefs, in which agents hold strategic beliefs. More precisely, we consider beliefs as a strategic variable that agents can choose (consciously or not) in order to maximize their utility at the equilibrium. These strategic beliefs result from an evolutionary process. We find that evolutionary strategic behavior leads to belief subjectivity and heterogeneity. Optimism (resp. overconfidence) as well as pessimism (resp. doubt) both emerge from the evolution process. Furthermore, we obtain a positive correlation between pessimism (rep. doubt) and risk-tolerance. We analyse the equilibrium characteristics. Under reasonable assumptions, the consensus belief is pessimistic and, as a consequence, the risk premium is higher than in a standard setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Yannick Viossat, 2012. "Evolutionary strategic beliefs and financial markets," Post-Print halshs-00556490, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00556490
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00556490
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    1. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:101-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beliefs formation; strategic beliefs; optimal beliefs; distorded beliefs; pessimism; risk premium;

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