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Unbiased and Accurate: Measuring Sensitive Outcomes through Ballot-Bag Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Jules Gazeaud

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations - French Collaborative Institute on Migration [Aubervilliers])

  • Bruno Crépon

  • Ahmed Elsayed

Abstract

Prevailing methods for measuring sensitive outcomes confront researchers with an inherent bias-variance trade- off: direct questioning is prone to a sensitivity bias, while indirect methods such as list experiments are substantially less precise. We introduce the ballot-bag, a novel technique that relaxes this trade-off by mitigating bias in direct questioning while improving precision over indirect methods. In a field experiment in Egypt, where direct questions on irregular migration are biased, ballot-bag estimates closely align with those from a list experiment but exhibit significantly lower variance. Consequently, treatment effects are highly significant via the ballot-bag and not via the list experiment.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jules Gazeaud & Bruno Crépon & Ahmed Elsayed, 2026. "Unbiased and Accurate: Measuring Sensitive Outcomes through Ballot-Bag Surveys," Post-Print hal-05700812, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05700812
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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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