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The Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in the Euro Area: Do Asymmetries and Structural Breaks Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Bakas

    (Nottingham Trent University)

  • Ioanna Konstantakopoulou

    (Centre for Planning and Economic Research)

  • Athanasios Triantafyllou

    (Audencia Business School)

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the tourism‐led economic growth hypothesis for the Euro Area economies. We employ both linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approaches to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tourism on economic growth. Furthermore, we control for the presence of structural breaks in the time series, which account for the recent financial and debt crises in the Euro Area. The results support the positive impact of tourism on economic growth for most of the Euro Area economies and are robust to alternative tourism measures. The findings indicate that an asymmetric impact exists both in the long and the short run. Positive and negative shocks in tourism and the real exchange rate result in significantly different effects, both in terms of sign and magnitude, on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Bakas & Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2026. "The Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in the Euro Area: Do Asymmetries and Structural Breaks Matter?," Post-Print hal-05578402, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05578402
    DOI: 10.1002/jtr.70304
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05578402v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robertico Croes, 2014. "The Role of Tourism in Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Assessment," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(2), pages 207-226, April.
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