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Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Bardon
  • Olivier Massol

    (FEMTO-ST - Franche-Comté Électronique Mécanique, Thermique et Optique - Sciences et Technologies (UMR 6174) - UTBM - Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard - ENSMM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE], LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Arthur Thomas

    (ENSAE - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université)

Abstract

Recent studies outline markedly different possible decarbonization pathways for civil aviation by 2050. This paper examines how the key assumptions retained in these scenarios (i.e., the posited deployment of sustainable aviation fuels [SAFs], the projected demand trajectory, and the availability of electric and hydrogen-fueled solutions) affect the sector's future emissions of greenhouse gas. Data for 67 recent scenarios from industry-related, academic, institutional, and think tanks/NGO sources are used to perform the analysis. The results shed light on the shared properties of these scenarios. First, we find a clear consensus on the negative impact of SAFs on residual GHG emissions by 2050, conditioning to a high level of SAF penetration. Second, these scenarios posit a smaller decarbonizing power of biomass-based SAF than that of e-fuel. Third, we find signs of authorship bias in some scenarios. This last finding, therefore, raises concerns about the direct use of these scenarios in policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Bardon & Olivier Massol & Arthur Thomas, 2025. "Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios," Post-Print hal-05449317, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05449317
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