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Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO 2 mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Grubb

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Paul Drummond

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Alexandra Poncia

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Will Mcdowall

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • David Popp

    (Syracuse University)

  • Sascha Samadi

    (Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy)

  • Cristina Penasco

    (CAM - University of Cambridge [UK])

  • Kenneth Gillingham

    (Yale University [New Haven])

  • Sjak Smulders

    (Tilburg University [Tilburg] - Netspar)

  • Matthieu Glachant

    (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)

  • Gavin Hassall

    (University of Warwick [Coventry])

  • Emi Mizuno

    (Climate Strategies)

  • Edward Rubin

    (CMU - Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh])

  • Antoine Dechezleprêtre

    (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Giulia Pavan

    (Compass Lexecon)

Abstract

We conduct a systematic and interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions. Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (a) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers—general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (b) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (c) Overall innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modelling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Grubb & Paul Drummond & Alexandra Poncia & Will Mcdowall & David Popp & Sascha Samadi & Cristina Penasco & Kenneth Gillingham & Sjak Smulders & Matthieu Glachant & Gavin Hassall & Emi Mizuno &, 2021. "Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO 2 mitigation," Post-Print hal-03925355, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03925355
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abde07
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolyn Fischer & Grant D. Jacobsen, 2021. "The Green New Deal And The Future Of Carbon Pricing," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 988-995, June.
    2. Emanuele Campiglio & Alessandro Spiganti & Anthony Wiskich, 2023. "Clean innovation and heterogeneous financing costs," Working Papers 2023: 07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Wang, Bo & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe, 2022. "High-quality energy development in China: Comprehensive assessment and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Saunders, Harry D. & Roy, Joyashree & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Chakravarty, Debalina & Dasgupta, Shyamasree & De La Rue Du Can, Stephane & Druckman, Angela & Fouquet, Roger & Grubb, Michael & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Energy efficiency: what has research delivered in the last 40 years?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Mayer, Jakob & Dugan, Anna & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2021. "Is carbon pricing regressive? Insights from a recursive-dynamic CGE analysis with heterogeneous households for Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Sato, Misato & Rafaty, Ryan & Calel, Raphael & Grubb, Michael, 2022. "Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Stern, Nicholas & Sivropoulos-Valero, Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114385, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Larosa, Francesca & Mysiak, Jaroslav & Molinari, Marco & Varelas, Panagiotis & Akay, Haluk & McDowall, Will & Spadaru, Catalina & Fuso-Nerini, Francesco & Vinuesa, Ricardo, 2023. "Closing the gap between research and projects in climate change innovation in Europe," MPRA Paper 116771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2023.
    13. Jonas Meckling & Clara Galeazzi & Esther Shears & Tong Xu & Laura Diaz Anadon, 2022. "Energy innovation funding and institutions in major economies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 876-885, September.
    14. Lassi Ahlvik & Inge van den Bijgaart, 2022. "Screening Green Innovation through Carbon Pricing," CESifo Working Paper Series 9931, CESifo.
    15. Brehm, Johannes & aus dem Moore, Nils & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Driving Innovation? – Carbon Tax Effects in the Swedish Transport Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264085, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    17. Doblinger, Claudia & Surana, Kavita & Li, Deyu & Hultman, Nathan & Anadón, Laura Díaz, 2022. "How do global manufacturing shifts affect long-term clean energy innovation? A study of wind energy suppliers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(7).
    18. de Moura, Fernanda Senra & Barbrook-Johnson, Peter, 2022. "Using data-driven systems mapping to contextualise complexity economics insights," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-27, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    19. Alessandro Muscio & Felice Simonelli & Hien Vu, 2023. "Bridging the valley of death in the EU renewable energy sector: Toward a new energy policy," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 4620-4635, November.
    20. Vrolijk, Kasper & Sato, Misato, 2023. "Quasi-experimental evidence on carbon pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118404, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Sæther, Simen Rostad, 2021. "Climate policy choices: An empirical study of the effects on the OECD and BRICS power sector emission intensity," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 499-515.
    22. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    23. Wang, Rongji & Laila, Ume & Nazir, Rabia & Hao, Xibin, 2023. "Unleashing the influence of industrialization and trade openness on renewable energy intensity using path model analysis: A roadmap towards sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 280-288.
    24. Matthew K. Agarwala & Diane Coyle & Cristina Peñasco & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2024. "Measuring for the Future, Not the Past," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lowe, R.J. & Drummond, P., 2022. "Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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