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Is a clash coming when trade and climate meet at the border? The impact of the EU's carbon border adjustment on China's belt and road initiative

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal Khan

    (Shandong University)

  • Yuan Li

    (Shandong University)

  • Eric Girardin

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We empirically examine the effectiveness of EU Border carbon adjustment (BCA) in the context of BRI, by developing a hypothetical BCA scheme based on a multi-regional Input-Output model. We use various evaluation criteria such as sectoral coverage, economic condition of trade partners, compliance with trade regulations, and selection of Best Available Technology (BAT). Our analysis shows that the EU-BCA scheme covers 44% of the global traded emissions, of which 84% are generated in the BRI regions. However, the BAT principle and trade provisions reduce the coverage of BCA emissions for BRI regions, while assumptions about the carbon intensity of imports result in a further reduction. Our findings both cast serious doubt on BCA's ability to drive industrial decarbonisation and alleviate domestic producers' competitiveness concerns, and support the argument that EU-BCA may level the playing field for the EU's domestic market but may not address competitiveness concerns in other (non-EU) markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Khan & Yuan Li & Eric Girardin, 2022. "Is a clash coming when trade and climate meet at the border? The impact of the EU's carbon border adjustment on China's belt and road initiative," Post-Print hal-03821161, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03821161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.09.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Jamal & Li, Yuan & Mahsud, Qaiser Jamal, 2024. "Linkages and Structural Changes in the Chinese Financial Sector, 1996–2018: A Network and Input–Output Approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 33-44.
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2024. "Threatening the Poor? The economic impacts of carbon border adjustment mechanism on developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 582-593.
    3. Chen, Zhe-Yi & Zhao, Lu-Tao & Cheng, Lei & Qiu, Rui-Xiang, 2025. "How does China respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? An approach of global trade analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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