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Venezuela : l’insoutenabilité du modèle de croissance, source de tous les risques

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Albert

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Cristina Jude

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

While Venezuela is facing a major balance of payments crisis following the fall in oil prices, it is essential to understand the origins of this situation. This paper first examines the distortions and economic imbalances underlying this economy, including hyperinflation, and then assesses the country?s capacity to face the risk of default. To this end, we build two scenarios of financing needs and resources, highly dependent on oil prices and support from China. We thus show that in the absence of a major rebound in oil prices, the default appears inevitable. Finally, we analyze the growing social and political tensions that accompany this difficult economic climate. Classification JEL: E31, F31, H63, O54, Q32.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Albert & Cristina Jude, 2017. "Venezuela : l’insoutenabilité du modèle de croissance, source de tous les risques," Post-Print hal-03539341, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03539341
    DOI: 10.3917/ecofi.124.0201
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    Cited by:

    1. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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