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Horizon 2050 : où la dynamique actuelle mène-t-elle l'économie mondiale ?

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Erica Perego
  • Gianluca Santoni

Abstract

Pandemics, global warming, food security, ageing, depletion of certain raw materials... Our economies are confronted with global problems, calling for the long term and raising intergenerational questions. To guide economic policies, it is therefore essential to have a coherent framework for thinking. The MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy) model, developed by CEPII, makes it possible to draw the basic trends of the world economy up to 2050. If we assume that the current growth and technological catch-up dynamics will continue, and taking into account demographic dynamics, the balance of economic power will be strongly transformed over the next generation. Above all, energy consumption is expected to continue to grow at a sustained rate, up to a doubling, despite efforts to improve energy efficiency. Ambitious policies to decarbonise our economies will then be necessary to make the prospects for economic growth sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Erica Perego & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "Horizon 2050 : où la dynamique actuelle mène-t-elle l'économie mondiale ?," Post-Print hal-03436070, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03436070
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03436070
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    Keywords

    Growth models; Long-term growth; Economic projections; Energy consumption; Modèles de croissance; Croissance à long-terme; Projections économiques; Consommation d'énergie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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