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Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Bangzhu
  • Wang, Kefan
  • Julien Chevallier

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8)

  • Ping Wang
  • Yi-Ming Wei

Abstract

In 2009, the Chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020. Can China achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth? To address this essential issue, the contributions of this study lie in three aspects. First, we quantitatively capture the relationship between China's economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory, and predict China's energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets. Second, we forecast China's energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and ARIMA models under different scenarios. Third, we deduce China's CO2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020. Furthermore, we investigate whether (or not) China can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth, and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure's adjustment to meeting this target. Finally, we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving China's carbon intensity target.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Julien Chevallier & Ping Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Post-Print hal-02875959, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02875959
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