Does a better diet reduce dependence on imports? The case of Tunisia

In the last 40 years Tunisia has experienced – as many other developing and emerging countries – a dietary transition, which led to an increase in the consumption of sugar, fats and animal products. This transition was accompanied by an increase in non‐communicable diseases and particularly in cardio‐vascular diseases. Using mathematical programming we optimized the Tunisian diet using the French dietary recommendations as constraints. Then, we used the Global Trade Analysis Project's constant elasticities of substitution in order to simulate the impact of fulfilling the nutrient recommendations on international trade and domestic supply. Using this approach, we showed that the Tunisian diet is too rich in carbohydrates and sugar but lacks fibers, some minerals and vitamins. The adherence to all the recommendations would induce an imperative shift to less sugar and cereal‐based products reducing the import dependence on these products, but induce a dramatic increase in the domestic supply of products from animal origin, fruits, vegetables and legumes.