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Estimation and identification of periodic autoregressive models with one exogenous variable

Author

Listed:
  • E. Ursu
  • Jean-Christophe Pereau

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the identification and estimation procedures for periodic autoregressive models with one exogenous variable (PARX). The identification of the optimal PARX model is based on the use of a genetic algorithm combined with the Bayes information criterion. The estimation of the parameters relies on the least squares method and their asymptotic properties are studied. Two simulation experiments are performed and indicate the success of the suggested method. A PARX model is used to study the relationship between the catch-per-unit-effort and the sea surface temperature as exogenous variable for the shrimp French Guiana fishery from January 1989 to December 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Ursu & Jean-Christophe Pereau, 2017. "Estimation and identification of periodic autoregressive models with one exogenous variable," Post-Print hal-02485120, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02485120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jkss.2017.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Huaping Chen & Qi Li & Fukang Zhu, 2023. "A covariate-driven beta-binomial integer-valued GARCH model for bounded counts with an application," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 86(7), pages 805-826, October.
    2. Huang, Xu & Maçaira, Paula Medina & Hassani, Hossein & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2019. "Hydrological natural inflow and climate variables: Time and frequency causality analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 480-495.

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