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Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth, South–South trade and the generalised balance-of-payments constraint


  • Alberto Bagnai

    () (Dipartimento di Economia e Storia del Territorio - Ud'A - Università degli studi "G. d'Annunzio" Chieti-Pescara [Chieti-Pescara])

  • Arsène Rieber

    () (LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran

    () (LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)


Using the post-Keynesian balance-of-payments constrained growth approach, we investigate the recent increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) growth, focussing on the contribution of South-South trade. The model is estimated by panel co-integration on a sample of 20 low- and lower-middle-income SSA countries, using annual data from 1990 to 2008, and considering three partner areas: SSA itself, developing Asia and the rest of the world. The results show that in the past decade the balance-of-payments constraint of SSA has been relaxed. This shift has occurred through different channels of transmission: the other SSA countries contributed through the real growth effect, developing Asia through the market share effect and the rest of the world through the terms of trade effect. These results help reconcile puzzling evidence on the pattern of SSA external indebtedness and provide new insights on the role of ‘Asian drivers’ on SSA growth, as well as on the sustainability of SSA growth recovery.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2016. "Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth, South–South trade and the generalised balance-of-payments constraint," Post-Print hal-02454578, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02454578
    DOI: 10.1093/cje/bev020
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server:

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    Cited by:

    1. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Mania, Elodie & Rieber, Arsène, 2019. "Product export diversification and sustainable economic growth in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 138-151.
    3. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    4. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.

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