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Oil Price Risk and Financial Contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Khaled Guesmi

    (IPAG Paris - IPAG Paris)

  • Ilyes Abid

    (autre - AUTRES)

  • Anna Creti

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis, IPAG Lab - IPAG Lab - IPAG Business School)

Abstract

In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion, originating from oil price fluctuations, to regional and domestic stock markets. The data are collected over the period from April 1993 to April 2015. We apply an empirical multifactor asset pricing model with three-factor setting to capture the unexpected return and disentangle simple correlation due to fundamentals and contagion. We investigate four regions: the European Monetary Union (EMU), Asia-Pacific (AP), the Non-European Monetary Union (NEMU) and North America (NA). We define contagion as the excess correlation that is not explained by fundamental factors. Oil price risk is shown to be a factor as important as contagion. In addition, oil price fluctuations amplify contagion in the context of regional markets strongly interlinked with the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Guesmi & Ilyes Abid & Anna Creti & Julien Chevallier, 2018. "Oil Price Risk and Financial Contagion," Post-Print hal-02314038, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02314038
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.SI2.kgue
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arthur J. Lin & Hai-Yen Chang, 2020. "Volatility Transmission from Equity, Bulk Shipping, and Commodity Markets to Oil ETF and Energy Fund—A GARCH-MIDAS Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Sunil K. Mohanty & Stein Frydenberg & Petter Osmundsen & Sjur Westgaard & Christian Skjøld, 2023. "Risk factors in stock returns of U.S. oil and gas companies: evidence from quantile regression analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 715-746, February.
    5. Imane El Ouadghiri & Mathieu Gomes & Jonathan Peillex & Guillaume Pijourlet, 2022. "Investor Attention to the Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement and Stock Returns," Post-Print hal-03549713, HAL.
    6. Razek, Noha H.A. & Michieka, Nyakundi M., 2019. "OPEC and non-OPEC production, global demand, and the financialization of oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 201-225.
    7. Dinesh Gajurel & Akhila Chawla, 2022. "The oil price crisis and contagion effects on the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 1527-1543, March.
    8. Arthur Jin Lin, 2023. "Volatility Contagion from Bulk Shipping and Petrochemical Industries to Oil Futures Market during the Economic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-19, August.

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