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Healthcare expenditures growth: the red herring of demographic ageing?
[Hausse des dépenses de santé. Quel rôle joue le vieillissement démographique ?]

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  • Marianne Tenand

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Demographic ageing is often deemed responsible for the massive increase in health expenditures experienced by developed countries. As the elderly consume more medical care than the rest of the population, how could the increase in the share of the 60 + not lead to a marked expansion of healthcare public and private budgets? Despite its apparent logics, such reasoning is fallacious: it ignores that medical care consumption depends on many factors beyond age, which have tremendously evolved in the last decades and may change again in the future. Based on French stylized facts, this article provides an overview of the international literature that aimed at disentangling the respective roles of population ageing and of the non-demographic factors in explaining the dynamics of health expenditures. Paradoxically, technical medical progress has been a major contributor to the increase of healthcare spending. Results from economics research lead to qualify the impact of demographic trends and call for more attention to the public policies decisions that shape healthcare systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Tenand, 2016. "Healthcare expenditures growth: the red herring of demographic ageing? [Hausse des dépenses de santé. Quel rôle joue le vieillissement démographique ?]," Post-Print hal-01289489, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01289489
    DOI: 10.1051/medsci/20163202015
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01289489
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    Keywords

    Ageing population; Health Care Expenditure; Vieillissement démographique; Dépenses de santé;
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