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Modélisation de l'agriculture meusienne et "Paquet Santer"

Author

Listed:
  • A. Barkaoui

    (LEF - Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

  • J.P. Butault

    (LEF - Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

Les auteurs simulent les effets du projet de la Commission européenne de réforme de la PAC dit Agenda 2000 ou Paquet Santer sur l'agriculture du département de la Meuse. Cette simulation s'appuie sur les comptabilités analytiques individuelles d'un échantillon d'exploitations représentatif de l'agriculture professionnelle meusienne et sur une modélisation de type programmation mathématique. L'originalité du modèle est la prise en compte d'une flexibilité dans les rendements, le chargement et l'intégration des effets du progrès technique et des changements structurels des exploitations. Les simulations font prévoir une baisse de l'offre de viande bovine, une augmentation de l'offre de céréales et une évolution du revenu très variable selon les systèmes de production. Ces résultats, limités à l'agriculture meusienne permettent d'avancer des réflexions sur les effets du Paquet Santer sur un champ plus vaste.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Barkaoui & J.P. Butault, 1998. "Modélisation de l'agriculture meusienne et "Paquet Santer"," Post-Print hal-01072567, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01072567
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. JP Butault & N Delame & JM Rousselle, 1994. "Formation et répartition des gains de productivité dans l'agriculture française. Analyse par produit," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 33, pages 56-72.
    2. Roland Carles & François-Xavier Decouvelaere & Guy Millet & Alain Revel & Jean-Claude Sourie, 1998. "Nouveaux outils pour analyser les effets de la prochaine réforme de la PAC sur les exploitations agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 56-64.
    3. Butault, J. P. & Delame, N & Rousselle, J. M., 1994. "Formation et répartition des gains de productivité dans l'agriculture française. Analyse par produit," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 33.
    4. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blanco Fonseca, Maria & Iglesias Martinez, Eva, 2005. "Modelling New EU Agricultural Policies: Global Guidelines, Local Strategies," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232644, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Barkaoui, Ahmed & Butault, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Cereals and Oilseeds Supply within the EU, under AGENDA 2000: A Positive Mathematical Programming Application," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Ahmed Barkaoui & Jean-Pierre Butault, 2000. "Programmation mathématique positive et offre de céréales et d'oléagineux dans l'Union Européenne sous l'agenda 2000," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 142(1), pages 13-25.

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