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Flux de Capital et Intégration Régionale : Une Etude Econométrique des Principaux Déterminants de l'Instabilité Macro-économique dans le Cône Sud-Américain

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  • Alexis Saludjian

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The high macro-economic volatility of the Southern-Cone countries since the late 1970s are relevant fields of investigation for economists and the development strategies they promote. Regional economic integration in Mercosur as well as economic and financial openness were said to act as macro-economic stabilisation factors. In order to test these hypothesis in the Mercosur case, we study the origins of macro-economic volatility over the 1976-2001 period and focus on two sub-groups of countries: Argentina and Uruguay on the one hand and Brazil and Paraguay on the other hand. We manage to validate the demercosurization concept and present solid statistical elements underlining the problems of the Open Regionalism. We also confirm statistically the negative role of the foreign capital flux on volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Saludjian, 2006. "Flux de Capital et Intégration Régionale : Une Etude Econométrique des Principaux Déterminants de l'Instabilité Macro-économique dans le Cône Sud-Américain," Post-Print hal-00118214, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00118214
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00118214
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    1. Ricardo J.Caballero, 2001. "Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America: a view and three case studies," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 5-52, June.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Globalization Hazard and Delayed Reform in Emerging Markets," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-31, January.
    3. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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