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The Cascade Bayesian Approach for a controlled integration of internal data, external data and scenarios


  • Bertrand Hassani

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Santander UK - Santander UK)

  • Alexis Renaudin

    () (Aon GRC - Aon Global Risk Consulting)


According to the last proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks under the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) must use four different sources of information to assess their Operational Risk capital requirement. The fourth including "business environment and internal control factors", i.e. qualitative criteria, the three main quantitative sources available to banks to build the Loss Distribution are Internal Loss Data, External Loss Data, and Scenario Analysis. This paper proposes an innovative methodology to bring together these three different sources in the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) framework through a Bayesian strategy. The integration of the different elements is performed in two different steps to ensure an internal data driven model is obtained. In a first step, scenarios are used to inform the prior distributions and external data informs the likelihood component of the posterior function. In the second step, the initial posterior function is used as the prior distribution and the internal loss data inform the likelihood component of the second posterior. This latter posterior function enables the estimation of the parameters of the severity distribution selected to represent the Operational Risk event types.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Hassani & Alexis Renaudin, 2013. "The Cascade Bayesian Approach for a controlled integration of internal data, external data and scenarios," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00795046, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00795046
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cornet, B., 1984. "Existence of equilibria in economies with increasing returns," CORE Discussion Papers 1984007, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    4. Khan, M Ali, 1999. " The Mordukhovich Normal Cone and the Foundations of Welfare Economics," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 1(3), pages 309-338.
    5. Bonnisseau, Jean-Marc & Cornet, Bernard, 1990. "Existence of Marginal Cost Pricing Equilibria: The Nonsmooth Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 685-708, August.
    6. Guesnerie, Roger, 1975. "Pareto Optimality in Non-Convex Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, January.
    7. Cornet, B., 1986. "The second welfare theorem in nonconvex economies," CORE Discussion Papers 1986030, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Jouini, Elyes, 1989. "A remark on Clarke's normal cone and the marginal cost pricing rule," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 95-101, February.
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