IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-00768898.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A theoretical framework for trading experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Maxence Soumare

    (JAD - Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Francis Bouchard

    (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Alain Elkaim

    (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Justin Leroux

    (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Michel Miniconi

    (JAD - Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lars Stentoft

    (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

Abstract

A general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors, corresponding to investors using fundemental investment strategies, technical analysis investment strategies respectively. Our framework accounts for two opposite situations already encountered in experimental setups : i) the rational expectations case, and ii) the case of pure speculation. We consider new experimental conditions which allow both elements to be present in the decision making process of the traders, thereby creating a dilemma in terms of investment strategy. Our theoretical framework allows us to predict the outcome of this type of trading experiments, depending on such variables as the number of people trading, the liquidity of the market, the amount of information used in technical analysis strategies, as well as the dividends attributed to an asset. We find that it is possible to give a qualitative prediction of trading behavior depending on a ratio that quantifies the fluctuations in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxence Soumare & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Francis Bouchard & Alain Elkaim & Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux & Michel Miniconi & Lars Stentoft, 2012. "A theoretical framework for trading experiments," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00768898, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00768898
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00768898
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00768898/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making; game theory; complex systems theory; technical analysis; rational expectations; Théorie des jeux;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00768898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.