Demographic Transition, Involuntary Unemployment and Intergenerational Redistribution: simulations in an AGEM framework[Transition démographique, chômage involontaire et redistribution intergénérationnelle : simulations dans un cadre d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées]

Pay as-you-go social security schemes will face increasing difficulties in the next few years due to population aging, which results from both extension of life expectancy and sharp decrease in fertility rates. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate within a computable general equilibrium model the consequences of different reforms within an economy with two types of agents: unqualified ones facing unemployment and qualified ones. We show that a mixed reform with two instruments (introduction of a funded pension system and decreasing of benefits) is Pareto-improving in the long term, while damaging welfare distribution. Morerover, simultations show that the increase of the legal retirement age should be up to seven years.