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The Economic Impact of Immigration in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

We have combined a simple demographic model and the 58 sector econometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE (Interindustry Forecasting Germany) which has been successfully used in different areas, e.g. modelling the effects of CO2 taxes and the liberalisation of the IT market on the German economy. The demographic model gives a forecast of the female and male age structure till the year 2010. INFORGE is part of the INFORUM International System that links 13 national Input-Output models on the sectoral level via export and import flows as well as the corresponding foreign trade prices. The model has a high degree of endogenization. Only some tax rates and the world market variables of the international INFORUM system are given exogenously. The high degree of endogenization has the advantage that in simulations the effects are depicted completely. The labour supply is modelled using the population module. The occupied population can be calculated by linking the age structure to the labour force participation rate of women and men for different age groups. So we have the possibility to simulate the effects of different migration scenarios on the German economy, assumed the structure of migration is constant over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2001. "The Economic Impact of Immigration in Germany," GWS Discussion Paper Series 01-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:01-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Impact; Immigration in Germany; demographic model; INFORGE; population forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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