Exploring the effects of Covid-19-policies on intra-household care work division

We develop an agent-based model to study how the Covid-19 pandemic may have affected the distribution of paid and unpaid work in families. The behavior of the agents in our model is informed by theories from psychology and sociology, as well as by economic considerations. We study two channels which were important during the pandemic: changes in time availability, resulting from an increase in unemployment and short-time work, and increased care work, triggered by the closure of kindergartens and schools, among others. Starting from a baseline scenario which is empirically calibrated with Austrian data on time use, we show that, on its own, each channel only exerts marginal post-pandemic effects. In combination, however, the model suggests that these channels promote a small, but significant egalitarian redistribution of paid and unpaid work. Social influence plays a crucial role in these results. A sensitivity analysis suggests that long-run regressive effects would also be possible, but only if the increased time availability fell to a much stronger extent on women, which seems to be empirically implausible.