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Spatial dependence in the growth process and implications for convergence rate: evidence on Vietnamese provinces

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  • Esiyok, Bulent
  • Ugur, Mehmet

Abstract

Existing studies on Vietnamese provinces (e.g., Anwar and Nguyen, 2010) tend to assume that province-specific growth is independent of that in its neighbours. However, many studies analysing regional economic growth in China, Brazil and Mexico report the existence of spatial spill-over effects. This paper investigates whether this is the case for 60 Vietnamese provinces for the time-period 1999-2010, using a system-GMM estimator and a Solow growth model augmented with human and physical capital and spatial lag covariates. We report that spatial dependence is a significant determinant of growth and conditional convergence in Vietnamese provinces. We also demonstrate that the rate of convergence decreases as the distance between neighbouring provinces increases. Given these findings, we recommend testing for spatial dependence in growth models for Vietnam and beyond to avoid omitted variable bias and inform evidence-based regional policies that take account of spatial externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Esiyok, Bulent & Ugur, Mehmet, 2017. "Spatial dependence in the growth process and implications for convergence rate: evidence on Vietnamese provinces," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 17507, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:17507
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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Dengfeng & You, Kefei & Esiyok, Bulent, 2021. "Foreign direct investment among developing markets and its technological impact on host: Evidence from spatial analysis of Chinese investment in Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Miranti, Ragdad Cani & Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2020. "Human Development Dynamics across Districts of Indonesia: A Study of Regional Convergence and Spatial Approach," MPRA Paper 100479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xuan Vinh Vo, Thi Tuan Anh Tran and Van Thang Nguyen, 2020. "Investigating the Economic Relationship between Provinces in Vietnam:A Spatial Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 47-60, March.
    4. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Global convergence of inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Minh-Thu Thi Nguyen, 2024. "Provincial income convergence in Vietnam: spatio-temporal dynamics and conditioning factors," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 429-460, June.
    6. Anh Tuan Pham & Minh Khac Nguyen & Hoang Linh Dang & Thi Xuan Thu Nguyen, 2021. "Can foreign direct investment foster the manufacturing industries’ spatial total factor productivity convergence in a transition economy? An empirical approach from Vietnam," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 606-623, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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