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Identifying Economic and Migration Effects of US Sanctions: Subnational Evidence from Venezuela’s Oil Producing Regions

Author

Listed:
  • José Morales-Arilla

    (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Miguel Angel Santos

    (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

  • Zinedine Partipilo Cornielles

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University)

Abstract

El artículo examina si las sanciones de Estados Unidos desde 2017 agravaron el colapso económico y la emigración venezolana a través del sector petrolero. Con un diseño de diferencias en diferencias compara municipios petroleros y no petroleros usando luces nocturnas, ventas de alimentos, migración y participación electoral. No encuentra deterioro ni emigración desproporcionados en zonas petroleras, cuestionando que las sanciones fueran el principal motor de la crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • José Morales-Arilla & Miguel Angel Santos & Zinedine Partipilo Cornielles, 2026. "Identifying Economic and Migration Effects of US Sanctions: Subnational Evidence from Venezuela’s Oil Producing Regions," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 36, School of Governement and Public Transformation.
    • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-08/Identifying_Economic_Migration_Effects_US.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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