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Thick breaks and trend stationarity : the case of euro-dollar exchange rate

Author

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  • Jean-François Goux

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

Abstract

The taking into account of a period of break (thick break) makes it possible to correctly analyze the time series of the euro-dollar exchange rate. By retaining the posterior period with the Louvre agreements, but by eliminating the first years from existence of the euro, and until today, one can affirm that this rate is stationary and after trend stationary and thus that there is a mechanism of return towards a level (a trend) of equilibrium. This point is shown using a new procedure of test based on the elimination of thick breaks. That makes it possible to propose a forecast based on this deterministic trend

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Thick breaks and trend stationarity : the case of euro-dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 0826, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0826
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.gate.cnrs.fr/RePEc/2008/0826.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro-dollar exchange rate; stationarity; breaks; outliers;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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