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Durée de chômage et hétérogénéité des issues : le rôle des préférences temporelles

Author

Listed:
  • Bassem Ben Halima

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

  • Mohamed Ali Ben Halima

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

Abstract

Le taux de préférence pour le présent est un facteur important qui conditionne la durée des épisodes de chômage. Les transitions du chômage sont analysées par l’estimation d’un modèle à hasard proportionnel à temps discret avec trois sorties à risques concurrents : contrat à durée indéterminée, contrat à durée déterminé, et inactivité. Nous mobilisons les données de l'échantillon français du Panel européen des ménages (1994 à 2001). Les résultats de l’estimation montrent que l’impatience diminue les chances d’accéder à un CDI alors qu’elle augmente les taux de transition vers un CDD. Les résultats de l’estimation du modèle économétrique sur les deux sous échantillons (chômeurs patients, chômeurs impatients) montrent, d’une part, que les chômeurs patients transitent souvent vers un CDI pour de faibles durées de chômage et vers l’inactivité en cas de survie trop élevée dans cet état. Les individus caractérisés par une forte préférence pour le présent quittent le chômage rapidement sans tenir compte ni de la qualité de l’emploi trouvé ni de l’adéquation entre l’emploi retrouvé et l’expérience professionnelle.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassem Ben Halima & Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, 2008. "Durée de chômage et hétérogénéité des issues : le rôle des préférences temporelles," Working Papers 0825, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0825
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Durée de chômage; Préférences temporelles; Modèle à hasard proportionnel à temps discret;

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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