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Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação para uma economia aberta


  • Marcelo de Oliveira Passos

    () (Universidade Tuiuti do Paraná)

  • José Luís Oreiro

    () (Department of Economics, Universidade Federal do Paraná)


O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação para uma economia aberta com câmbio flutuante e mobilidade imperfeita de capitais. Após a apresentação da estrutura básica do modelo, procede-se a simulação computacional do mesmo, a partir da qual são inferidas as trajetórias dinâmicas das variáveis endógenas. As trajetórias simuladas replicam alguns traços gais da dinâmica capitalista, em particular a ocorrência de crescimento cíclico, ou seja, flutuações de caráter irregular da taxa de crescimento do produto real. No que se refere à macrodinâmica externa do modelo aberto, a interação dinâmica entre o câmbio real e o saldo comercial no longo prazo permite supor que, em períodos nos quais há apreciação da taxa de câmbio real, o saldo comercial além de cair apresenta sua volatilidade reduzida. Um outro resultado importante obtido a partir do modelo aqui apresentado é a existência de uma tendência de longo-prazo para o aumento do grau de financeirização da riqueza, ou seja, um aumento da participação da riqueza financeira na riqueza total dos capitalistas dessa economia.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo de Oliveira Passos & José Luís Oreiro, 2007. "Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação para uma economia aberta," Working Papers 0069, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fup:wpaper:0069 Note: Creation Date corresponds to the year in which the paper was published on the Department of Economics website. The paper may have been written a small number of months before its publication date.

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Macroeconomia Aberta; Economia Computacional; Modelos de Simulação; Economia Pós-Keynesiana;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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