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Forecasting Australian Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Study of Alternate Modelling Techniques and the Impact of Power Transformations


  • McKenzie, M.D.


The modelling and forecasting of exchange rates and their volatility has important implications for many issues in economics and finance. This paper compares the ability of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Autoregressive and Mean models to forecast the magnitude of change in 19 Australian bilateral exchange rate series. Further, the impact of power transformations on the accuracy of the AR models is considered. The results of this paper suggest that ARCH models generate superior forecasting performance when considering the squared returns of an exchange rate series. However, when one considers power terms other than a squared term, the forecasting accuracy of the AR models often exceeds that of the ARCH models. All models performed reasonably well in a conventional test of forecasting efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • McKenzie, M.D., 1997. "Forecasting Australian Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Study of Alternate Modelling Techniques and the Impact of Power Transformations," Papers 97-10, Melbourne - Centre in Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:melrfi:97-10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lee, John H. H., 1991. "A Lagrange multiplier test for GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 265-271, November.
    2. Graham Barr & Jos Gerson & Brian Kantor, 1995. "Shareholders As Agents And Principals: The Case For South Africa'S Corporate Governance System," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32.
    3. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    4. Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 1992. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical study of the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-59, February.
    5. Tse, Y. K., 1991. "Stock returns volatility in the Tokyo stock exchange," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 285-298, November.
    6. Kearns, P & Pagan, A R, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875-1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(205), pages 163-178, June.
    7. French, Kenneth R. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "Were Japanese stock prices too high?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-363, October.
    8. de Jong, Frank & Kemna, Angelien & Kloek, Teun, 1992. "A contribution to event study methodology with an application to the Dutch stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 11-36, February.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
    11. Lee, John H H & King, Maxwell L, 1993. "A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 17-27, January.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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