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The Risk of marginalization in the Labour Market: Application of the Three State Dependent Competing Risks Duration Model


  • Rosholm, M.


In this paper I apply a three-state dependent competing risks model to analyse marginalization in the Danish labour market during the 1980s. I derive the theoretical contribution of a left-censored spell (which may also be right-censored), using a piecewise exponential baseline hazard specification. Dependency between risks and time spent in various states is allowed for. The main findings are that youth unemployment was a severe problem in the 1980s, caused mainly by high transition rates into nonparticipation and unemployment, rather than low transition rates into employment. Furthermore, for a certain cohort of men, 'The lost Generation', having obtained working experience is crucial to not being marginalized, that is, there are indications of a higher degree of polarization in the labour market for this particular male cohort.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosholm, M., 1997. "The Risk of marginalization in the Labour Market: Application of the Three State Dependent Competing Risks Duration Model," Papers 97-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:clmsre:97-14

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    2. Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1984. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 194-199, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
    2. Larsen, Birthe, 2001. "Minimum wages, technological progress and loss of skill," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1521-1544, August.

    More about this item



    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search


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