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The Risk of marginalization in the Labour Market: Application of the Three State Dependent Competing Risks Duration Model

Listed author(s):
  • Rosholm, M.

In this paper I apply a three-state dependent competing risks model to analyse marginalization in the Danish labour market during the 1980s. I derive the theoretical contribution of a left-censored spell (which may also be right-censored), using a piecewise exponential baseline hazard specification. Dependency between risks and time spent in various states is allowed for. The main findings are that youth unemployment was a severe problem in the 1980s, caused mainly by high transition rates into nonparticipation and unemployment, rather than low transition rates into employment. Furthermore, for a certain cohort of men, 'The lost Generation', having obtained working experience is crucial to not being marginalized, that is, there are indications of a higher degree of polarization in the labour market for this particular male cohort.

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Paper provided by Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark- in its series Papers with number 97-14.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Handle: RePEc:fth:clmsre:97-14
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Danmark; Centre for Labour Market and Social Research. Science Park Aarhus Wieds Vej 10C, 8000 Aarhus C, Danmark

Phone: +45 8942 2350
Fax: +45 8942 2365
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