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Vulnerability and the impact of climate change in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin:

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  • Shewmake, Sharon

Abstract

"This paper uses farmers' responses to exogenous weather shocks in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin to gauge how farmers are apt to respond to future climate change-induced shocks, in particular drought. Droughts are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. This study examines the costs of drought today and who it affects the most, in an effort to guide policy adaptations in the future. A combination of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis is used to approximate the potential impact of droughts on rural South African households. This paper also estimates household vulnerability. After controlling for household heterogeneity using propensity score matching, it is noted that there is no statistically significant impact of droughts on income, thus suggesting households have already adapted to living in a drought-prone environment. The types of households that were more vulnerable to climate shocks are analyzed using two measures of vulnerability: the probability of falling below income of 7,800 South African Rand (R), and the probability of income falling below 16,000 R. Residents of the Limpopo province were the least vulnerable under both metrics. Setswana and SeSwati households were more vulnerable than other ethnic groups. Households that do not own livestock and households that rely on rainfed agriculture were also more vulnerable than other households." from authors' abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Shewmake, Sharon, 2008. "Vulnerability and the impact of climate change in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin:," IFPRI discussion papers 804, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & Kenneth R. Simler, 2007. "Consistent poverty comparisons and inference," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(2-3), pages 133-139, September.
    2. Finn Tarp, 2006. "Aid and Development," Discussion Papers 06-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Channing Arndt & Robert C. James & Kenneth R. Simler, 2006. "Has Economic Growth in Mozambique been Pro-Poor?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(4), pages 571-602, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranganathan, C. & Palanisami, K. & Kakumanu, K. & Baulraj, A., 2011. "Mainstreaming the Adaptations and Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor due to Climate Change," ADBI Working Papers 333, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Kiumars Zarafshani & Lida Sharafi & Hossein Azadi & Steven Van Passel, 2016. "Vulnerability Assessment Models to Drought: Toward a Conceptual Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Witt, Rudolf & Waibel, Hermann, 2011. "Constraints to diversification of poor fishery-dependent households in Cameroon," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(2), September.
    4. Sesmero, Juan P. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E. & Cook, Aaron M., 2015. "How do African Farm Households Adapt to Climate Change? A Structural Analysis from Malawi," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212688, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Xiaohui Hou, 2010. "Can Drought Increase Total Calorie Availability? The Impact of Drought on Food Consumption and the Mitigating Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 713-737, July.

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    Keywords

    Vulnerability; Climate change; drought;

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