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A characterization of income dynamics in Poland using administrative data

Author

Listed:
  • Pawel Chrostek
  • Lucas van der Velde

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Warsaw School Economics)

  • Tomasz Zawisza
  • Piotr Å»och

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych Uniwersytet Warszawski)

Abstract

This paper analyzes earnings dynamics and inequality in Poland from 2000 to 2020 using administrative tax data as part of the Global Repository of Income Dynamics (GRID). Income grew substantially, but inequality was no higher in 2020 than in 2000, having risen through 2006 and fallen thereafter. Earnings changes exhibit pronounced deviations from normality: cyclical skewness, persistent excess kurtosis, and a hockey-stick-shaped dispersion profile across permanent income, steepest at the bottom, flat in the middle, and rising again at the top. We relate percentile-level changes in earnings and earnings growth to the minimum wage, unemployment, and GDP. Minimum-wage growth is strongly associated with gains at the bottom of the cross-sectional distribution and higher unemployment with downward shifts throughout both distributions, while associations with GDP are less stable across specifications. Poland's macroeconomic conditions are related to the location and lower tail of the cross-sectional distribution and to the cyclical asymmetry of earnings changes, while the level of individual earnings risk resembles that of mature European economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawel Chrostek & Lucas van der Velde & Tomasz Zawisza & Piotr Å»och, 2026. "A characterization of income dynamics in Poland using administrative data," GRAPE Working Papers 120, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:120
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    File URL: https://grape.org.pl/WP/120_Chrostek_VanDerVelde_Zawisza_Zoch_website.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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