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Leaving uncertainty behind: A cross-country analysis of fertility intentions

Author

Listed:
  • Wioletta Grzenda
  • Magdalena Smyk

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Lucas van der Velde

    (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)
    Warsaw School Economics)

Abstract

We conceptualize individual-level resilience as the ability of men and women to form plans about future fertility, either in positive or negative terms. We study which factors predict fertility intentions with an emphasis on interactions between micro and macro factors based on the second wave of the Gender and Generation Program Survey (2024) concerning ten developed European countries using Random Forest. Our model shows that factors linked to resilience are valuable predictors of fertility intentions, particularly factors defined at the individual level: difficulties across life domains (such as health, or housing) predict greater uncertainty in fertility intentions; whereas variables associated with family resources, such as education or religiosity, predict more positive fertility intentions. Variables at an aggregate level, such as the intensity of the pandemic, are weaker predictors. Our model does not find large interactions between micro and macro variables.Length: 66 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Wioletta Grzenda & Magdalena Smyk & Lucas van der Velde, 2026. "Leaving uncertainty behind: A cross-country analysis of fertility intentions," GRAPE Working Papers 119, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fme:wpaper:119
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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