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What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?

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Abstract

Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Lucca & Ernst Schaumburg, 2011. "What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?," Liberty Street Economics 20110815, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:86760
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Fleming & John Sporn, 2013. "Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(May), pages 45-57.
    2. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    3. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TIPS breakevens; Inflation swaps; inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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