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Struggling Regional Small Businesses Deeply Pessimistic About 2026 Prospects

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Abstract

We recently updated the suite of indicators describing the performance of small businesses in the Second District (defined, for the purpose of this study, as New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) and nationally with data from the 2025 edition of the Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS). In this post, we find that regional small businesses reported severe declines in employment and revenue growth in 2025 and became more pessimistic about growth in 2026. In contrast, small firms in the rest of the nation enjoyed stable revenues and employment in 2025 and, while they also had lower expectations of future growth, the decline was smaller in magnitude. Given the importance of small businesses in employment generation, analyzing such data helps to inform the design of effective monetary policy and to understand trends in the regional economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Will Aarons & Asani Sarkar, 2026. "Struggling Regional Small Businesses Deeply Pessimistic About 2026 Prospects," Liberty Street Economics 20260602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:103353
    DOI: 10.59576/lse.20260602
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    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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