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In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?

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Abstract

Over the past year, U.S. trade policy with China has undergone enormous changes, but with surprisingly little effect on overall trade balances. In fact, the U.S.’s twelve-month trade deficit, while highly volatile due to import front-running early in the year, ended 2025 at $1.2 trillion, almost unchanged from 2024. At the same time, China’s trade surplus with the world actually increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion. However, when looking at changes between individual countries, one sees large shifts in bilateral balances. In this post, we will focus on changing trade flows between the U.S., China, and southeast Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunter L. Clark & Greg Simitian, 2026. "In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?," Liberty Street Economics 20260504, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:103171
    DOI: 10.59576/lse.20260504
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    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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