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Crime and arrests: deterrence or resource reallocation?

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  • Thomas A. Garrett
  • Lesli S. Ott

Abstract

We use monthly time-series data for 20 large U.S. cities to test the deterrence hypothesis (arrests reduce crimes) and the resource reallocation hypothesis (arrests follow from an increase in crime). We find (1) weak support for the deterrence hypothesis, (2) much stronger support for the resource reallocation hypothesis, and (3) differences in city-level estimates suggest much heterogeneity in the crime and arrest relationship across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Garrett & Lesli S. Ott, 2010. "Crime and arrests: deterrence or resource reallocation?," Working Papers 2010-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-011
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2010.011
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    2. Yu Liu & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Nathan J. Ashby, 2013. "Assessing The Impacts Of Labor Market And Deterrence Variables On Crime Rates In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 669-690, October.
    3. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.

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