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Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Abstract

We set-up a two-sector New Keynesian model with input-output linkages and monetary fiscal policy interactions to study the post-COVID-19 inflation. We test alternative calibrations of the model based on the fit of aggregate inflation, using shock estimates obtained by fitting goods inflation. Our preferred model suggests that fiscal shocks not offset by monetary policy account for the initial inflation surge in the first half of 2021 while supply-side shocks have emerged as main drivers of inflation since then. Multiple factors (“supply-side disruption”, “expansionary policy”, and “sectoral reallocation shock”) played an important role at different phases of the recent inflationary episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Taeyoung Doh & Choongryul Yang, 2023. "Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic," Research Working Paper RWP 23-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 25 Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:97656
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2023-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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