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Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle



We develop novel macroeconomic surprise indices to identify the impact of macroeconomic releases on aggregate stock market returns over the FOMC cycle. We find that the aggregate stock prices are positively correlated with our real economic activity news index and negatively correlated with our price news index.

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  • Jack McCoy & Michele Modugno & Berardino Palazzo & Steven A. Sharpe, 2020. "Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-10-14-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2020-10-14-1
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2745

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    Cited by:

    1. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.

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