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China’s Trade Dominance and the Role of Industrial Policies

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Abstract

China's trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, exceeding 6% of its GDP, marking a new milestone in its integration into, and dominance of, the global trading system. This development has attracted heightened attention from policymakers and analysts, not only because of the sheer size of the surplus, but also because of growing concerns about the distribution of global manufacturing, the persistence of global external imbalances, and the role of industrial policy interventions in shaping trade outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois de Soyres & Ece Fisgin & Mike Liu & Eva Van Leemput, 2026. "China’s Trade Dominance and the Role of Industrial Policies," FEDS Notes 2026-03-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:102993
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.4018
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