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Constant proportion debt obligations: a post-mortem analysis of rating models

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In its complexity and its vulnerability to market volatility, the CPDO might be viewed as the poster child for the excesses of financial engineering in the credit market. This paper examines the CPDO as a case study in model risk in the rating of complex structured products. We demonstrate that the models used by S&P and Moody's would have assigned very low probability to the spread levels realized in the investment grade corporate credit default swap market in late 2007, even though these spread levels were comparable to those of 2002. The spread levels realized in the first quarter of 2008 would have been assigned negligibly small probabilities. Had the models put non-negligible likelihood on attaining these high spread levels, the CPDO notes could never have achieved investment grade status. We conclude with larger lessons for the rating of complex products and for modeling credit risk in general.

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  • Michael B. Gordy & Søren Willemann, 2010. "Constant proportion debt obligations: a post-mortem analysis of rating models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-05
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    1. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
    2. Lee, Hwang Hee & Hyun, Jung-Soon, 2019. "The asymmetric effect of equity volatility on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 125-136.
    3. Baghai, Ramin & Becker, Bo & Pitschner, Stefan, 2018. "The Private Use of Credit Ratings: Evidence from Mutual Fund Investment Mandates," CEPR Discussion Papers 13418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Baghai, Ramin P. & Becker, Bo, 2020. "Reputations and credit ratings: Evidence from commercial mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 425-444.
    5. Baghai, Ramin P. & Becker, Bo, 2018. "Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 94-112.
    6. Agostino Capponi & Martin Larsson, 2014. "Will banning naked CDS impact bond prices?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 481-508, August.
    7. Michael B. Gordy & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2015. "Bayesian Estimation of Time-Changed Default Intensity Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Detering, Nils & Packham, Natalie, 2018. "Model risk of contingent claims," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-036, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

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