Can Creating Legal Pathways Reduce Unauthorized Immigration? Evidence from the CHNV Parole Program

In an attempt to reduce unauthorized entries into the United States, the Biden administration created humanitarian parole programs for migrants from several countries experiencing crises. Migrants with a U.S. sponsor could apply from abroad and, if approved, were allowed to enter the country and remain for up to two years. Under the CHNV program, over 530,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela were paroled into the U.S. between late 2022 and mid-2024. Synthetic difference-in-differences models indicate a sustained drop in unauthorized attempted crossings between ports of entry for Cuba and Nicaragua, a short-lived drop for Venezuela and no clear pattern for Haiti after the parole processes began. The difference may be due to some migrants from Haiti and Venezuela—but not Cuba and Nicaragua—being eligible for another U.S. humanitarian protection program, giving them more motivation to attempt entry. Meanwhile, the number of inadmissible migrants who presented themselves at ports of entry along the border did not fall for any of the countries included in the CHNV parole program. Overall, the program appears to have reduced attempts to enter the United States by Nicaraguans, had no impact among Cubans and Venezuelans and increased the number of Haitian migrants.