IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of evolving labor practices and demographics on U.S. inflation and unemployment


  • John V. Duca
  • Carl M. Campbell


Since the early 1990s, NAIRU estimates have declined and unemployment duration has risen relative to the unemployment rate. These developments may have arisen from the aging of the workforce or practices reducing job turnover. We assess the internal consistency of these hypotheses using simulation methods and test their external consistency using modified NAIRU models. We find that demographics cannot fully account for changes in the NAIRU, consistent with Staiger, Stock, and Watson (2001) and in contrast to Shimer (1998, 2001). Instead, our results attribute shifts in the NAIRU and duration to a combination of shifts in demographics and job turnover.

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Duca & Carl M. Campbell, 2007. "The impact of evolving labor practices and demographics on U.S. inflation and unemployment," Working Papers 0702, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0702

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    3. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    4. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga, 2004. "Argentina's capital gap puzzle," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0504, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.