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Exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty: recursive equilibrium and survival

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  • Raad, Rodrigo Jardim

Abstract

This paper analyses general equilibrium models with finite heterogeneous agents having exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty. It is shown that there exists a recursive equilibrium with the state space consisting of the past aggregate portfolio distribution and the current state of the nature and that it implements the sequential equilibrium. We establish conditions under which the recursive equilibrium is continuous. Moreover, we use the continuous recursive relation of the aggregate variables to prove that if the economy has two types of agents, the one who commits persistent mistakes on the expectation rules of the future endogenous variables is driven out of the market by the others with correct anticipations of the variables, that is, the rational expectations agents.

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  • Raad, Rodrigo Jardim, 2011. "Exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty: recursive equilibrium and survival," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 715, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:715
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    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/7914/5/Exogenous-Expectations-on-Endogenous-Uncertainty-Recursive-Equilibrium-and-Survival.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Raad, R., 2012. "Existence of an equilibrium for infinite horizon economies with and without complete information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 247-262.

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