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Dams and Rural Conflict: Evidence from Brazil’s Hydropower Expansion

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Corbi

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Chiara Falco

    (University of Milan)

  • Luca J. Uberti

    (University of Milano-Bicocca)

Abstract

We estimate the impact of infrastructure investment on conflict using 163 hydroelectric dams in Brazil (2002–2022). Leveraging the staggered rollout of construction in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that dams trigger sharp, temporary surges in land invasions, water disputes, and homicides. These effects peak during construction and dissipate upon operation, suggesting they stem from the displacement process rather than the public good itself. Crucially, conflict is mediated by local institutions: violence occurs only where property rights are weak and displacement affects vulnerable smallholders. Our results demonstrate that without effective compensation, state-led modernization generates destabilizing redistributive shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Corbi & Chiara Falco & Luca J. Uberti, 2026. "Dams and Rural Conflict: Evidence from Brazil’s Hydropower Expansion," Working Papers 2026.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.01
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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis

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