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Adverse Feedback Loop in the Bank-Based Financial Systems

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Abstract

This paper examines procyclicality of the financial system. The introduction describes the natural and regulatory sources of procyclicality, focusing on the potential procyclical effect of the current Basel II regulatory framework for banks. It also mentions the regulatory tools for mitigating procyclical behaviour by financial institutions currently being discussed in international forums. Under certain conditions, procyclical behaviour of the banking sector can lead to an adverse feedback loop whereby banks, in response to an economic downswing, engage in deleveraging and reduce their lending to the economy in order to maintain the required capital adequacy ratio. This then further negatively affects economic output and impacts back on banks in the form of, for example, increased loan losses. In the main empirical section of the paper, this effect was simulated on the example of the Czech banking sector. The simulation results suggest that under certain assumptions the feedback loop may play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubík, 2010. "Adverse Feedback Loop in the Bank-Based Financial Systems," Working Papers IES 2010/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_14
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/14150
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    1. Eva Ryšavá & Elisa Galeotti, 2009. "Determinants of FDI in Czech Manufacturing Industries between 2000-2006," Working Papers IES 2009/17, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2009.
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    Keywords

    procyclicality; feedback loop; bank regulation; deleveragin;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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