Strategic investment decisions under the nuclear power debate in Belgium

In view of the current nuclear power debate in Belgium, we analyze how uncertainty about a nuclear phase-out, coupled with the implementation of renewable energy subsidies and nuclear taxes, affects investment capacity and productivity decisions by Belgian electricity suppliers. To achieve this goal, considering the key characteristics of the Belgian market, we build a Stackelberg closed-loop (two-stage) equilibrium model in which investment decisions are made in a first stage under uncertainty regarding a nuclear phase-out, and productivity decisions are subsequently made in a second stage in a certainty environment. Our analysis indicates that, regardless of subsidies, an increase in the probability of nuclear license extension results in lower levels of investment - primarily in renewable energy -, lower total production and a higher electricity price. We also show that the implementation of renewable energy subsidies reduces the effect of an increase in probability of nuclear license extension on producer’s decisions regarding expanded capacity and on total profits in the market.