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Hard work, and More: How to successfully conduct adjustment with official assistance

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  • Martin Larch
  • Kristin Magnusson Bernard
  • Balint Tatar

Abstract

What is needed for a country to successfully adjust after a crisis episode is a subject of much debate including in the euro area where four out of seventeen countries were in a full economic adjustment programme by end 2013. We identify adjustment needs by a country's decision to approach the IMF for official assistance. We then investigate the factors conducive to successful exit from official assistance during more than 170 adjustment episodes by means of a panel regression framework. We define success as a resumption of growth and a significant debt reduction. Our econometric results suggest hard work, i.e. policy action such as fiscal adjustment and decisive financial sector repair, play an important role for the probability of a successful exit. We also find that more stringent conditionality, especially in the structural area, increases the chances of success. Supportive external conditions further enhance the prospects for a durable and successful exit. These results also hold up when success is instead defined as the ability of the country to finance itself on capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Larch & Kristin Magnusson Bernard & Balint Tatar, 2014. "Hard work, and More: How to successfully conduct adjustment with official assistance," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 514, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0514
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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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