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Exploring Italy's Growth Challenge A Model-Based Exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Dino Pinelli
  • István P. Székely
  • János Varga

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, Italy’s economic growth faltered, primarily due to sluggish productivity growth. This article investigates the root causes of the slow growth. Firstly, it benchmarks Italy over time visà-vis euro area and OECD countries in the area of human capital, product market regulation, taxation structure and innovation. The analysis shows that Italy's gaps in these areas have grown over the last 15 years and are particularly large for human capital. Secondly, it uses a set of stylized simulations in QUEST R&D model of the European Commission to assess the potential impact of a package of growth-enhancing reforms in these areas. The simulations show that structural reforms could boost productivity and GDP growth significantly. Important reforms are ongoing. Given the very nature and the size of the gaps, it is important that the reform momentum is maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Dino Pinelli & István P. Székely & János Varga, 2016. "Exploring Italy's Growth Challenge A Model-Based Exercise," European Economy - Discussion Papers 041, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:041
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    File URL: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/exploring-italys-growth-challenge-model-based-exercise_en
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    Cited by:

    1. Dino Pinelli & Roberta Torre & Lucianajulia Pace & Laura Cassio & Alfonso Arpaia, 2017. "The Recent Reform of the Labour Market in Italy: A Review," European Economy - Discussion Papers 072, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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