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Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020)1

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  • Sebastian Morris

Abstract

We had earlier estimated the likely cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic for a number of countries. This was an early attempt and gave somewhat tentative results. With some 7 more days of data being now available, better estimates are possible which we bring out in this paper. As in the previous paper we use a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths, to estimate the zero growth level of cases and deaths. We also provide an upper bound to these estimates. The earlier estimates are further reinforced, and new estimates are made for a select set of countries where the growth rates in the numbers of cases, and in deaths have begun to decline. We also give estimates of the current growth rates in cases and deaths that these countries are likely to witness.

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  • Sebastian Morris, 2020. "Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020)1," Working Papers id:13057, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:13057
    Note: Institutional Papers
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