Why Has Japan's Fertility Rate Declined? A Empirical Literature Survey with an Emphasis on Policy Implication (in Japanese)

Japan's total fertility rate declined to 1.32 in 2002, the lowest in its modern era. Such a drastic decline in fertility rate is an exception in the world. What the decrease in birthrate brings is an unbalanced demographic composition between a productive and dependent population. This development might result in a bigger burden per person regarding social security; it might even have a negative effect on Japan's long-term economic performance. This paper surveys the literature on the decline in Japan's fertility rate. We emphasize the policy implications for supporting a spur in Japan's birthrate. First, we describe a long-term trend in Japan's fertility rate and show that the decline after the 1970s was attributed to a decline in the number of marriages, and partly to a decline in households with three or more children. We then move to a survey on empirical studies to examine the relationship between birthrate and several factors: a increase in the opportunity costs of having children accompanies an increase in female wages and labor participation, the growing costs of child care, decreasing generational transfer from parents to children, the shortage of child care services, poor company support for child care leave, and direct public compensation for having children. We conclude that all policies that support female workers and child care are especially important.