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Predicting Long-Term Effects of Infrastructure Development Projects in Continental South East Asia: IDE Geographical Simulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Satoru KUMAGAI

    (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, Japan)

  • Toshitaka GOKAN

    (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, Japan)

  • Ikumo ISONO

    (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, Japan)

  • Souknilanh KEOLA

    (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, Japan)

Abstract

It is important to develop a rigorous economic geography model for predicting changes in the location of population and industries across regions in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed for two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of population and industries in East Asia in the long term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure projects on the regional economy at sub-national levels. The basic structure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in this article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Satoru KUMAGAI & Toshitaka GOKAN & Ikumo ISONO & Souknilanh KEOLA, 2008. "Predicting Long-Term Effects of Infrastructure Development Projects in Continental South East Asia: IDE Geographical Simulation Model," Working Papers d002, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:d002
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    File URL: http://www.eria.org/ERIA-DP-2008-02.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimura, Fukunari & Obashi, Ayako, 2011. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADBI Working Papers 320, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic geography; Infrastructure development; Custom clearance;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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